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peak water

Peak water is reached when the rate at which water is demanded is higher than the rate at which the supply is replenished. There is a vast amount of water on the planet but sustainably managed water is becoming scarce. Much of the world's water in underground aquifers and in lakes behaves like a finite resource by being depleted. The peak usage sparks debates similar to those about peak oil. There is concern that the state of peak water is being approached in many areas around the world. If present trends continue, 1.8 billion people will be living with absolute water scarcity by 2025, and two thirds of the world population could be subject to water stress. Peak water is not about running out of fresh water, but the peaking and subsequent decline of the production rate of the water.

The Hubbert curve has gained a high degree of popularity in the scientific community for predicting the depletion of various natural resources. M. King Hubbert created this measurement device in 1956 for a variety of finite resources such as coal, oil, natural gas and uranium.^[6] Hubbert's curve was not applied to resources such as water originally but has been applied to this area also as water usage often results in a Hubbert peak nonetheless for this resource. There are several ways that a renewable resource like water becomes a finite resource: not returning water to the hydrological cycle, saltwater intrusion, pollution and over-use. A modified Hubbert curve applies to any resource that can be harvested faster than it can be replaced.

Like peak oil, peak water is inevitable given the rate of extraction. A current argument is that civilisation, man's preferred way of living for the past six thousand years, is intrinsically thirsty and large populations hoping to enjoy 'civilised' life styles explains why groundwater is being exhausted so quickly.

Fresh water is a renewable resource, yet the world's supply of clean, fresh water is steadily decreasing. The world has an estimated 326 quintillion gallons of water but 97 percent of it is salty. Nearly 70% of that fresh water is frozen in the icecaps of Antarctica and Greenland. Most of the remainder is present as soil moisture or lies in deep underground aquifers as groundwater not accessible to human use. Less than 1% of the world's fresh water or 0.007% of all water on earth is accessible for direct human use. This is the water found in lakes, rivers, reservoirs and those underground sources that are shallow enough to be tapped at an affordable cost. Only this minuscule amount is regularly renewed by rain and snowfall, and is therefore available on a sustainable basis.

The amount of available freshwater supply is decreasing because of climate change, which has caused receding glaciers, reduced stream and river flow, and shrinking lakes. Many aquifers have been over-pumped and are not recharging quickly. Although the total fresh water supply is not used up, much has become polluted, salted, unsuitable or otherwise unavailable for drinking, industry and agriculture.

Water demand already exceeds supply in many parts of the world, and as the world population continues to rise at an unprecedented rate, many more areas are expected to experience this imbalance in the near future.

Agriculture represents 70% of freshwater use worldwide. Agriculture, industrialization and urbanization all serve to increase water consumption.

Consequences :

Famine

Water shortage may cause famine in Pakistan. Pakistan has approximately 35 million acres (140,000 km²) of arable land irrigated by canals and tube wells. Dams were constructed at Chashma, Mangla, and Tarbela to feed the irrigation system. Since the completion of the Tarbela Dam in 1976 no new capacity has been added despite astronomical growth in population. The gross capacity of the three dams has decreased because of sedimentation, a continual process. Per-capita surface-water availability for irrigation was 5,260 cubic meters per year in 1951. This has been reduced to a mere 1,100 cubic meters per year in 2006. The water shortage will cause a wheat deficit of 12 million tonnes per year by 2012-13.

Health problems

The quality of drinking water is vital for human health. Peak water results in people not having access to water for basic personal hygiene. "Infectious waterborne diseases such as diarrhea, typhoid, and cholera are responsible for 80 percent of illnesses and deaths in the developing world, many of them children. One child dies every eight seconds from a waterborne disease; 15 million children a year."

Vital aquifers everywhere are becoming contaminated with toxins. Once an aquifer is contaminated, it is not likely that it can ever recover. Contaminants are more likely to cause chronic health effects. Water can be contaminated from pathogens such as bacteria, viruses, and parasites. Also, toxic organic chemicals can be a source of water contamination. Inorganic contaminants include toxic metals like arsenic, barium, chromium, lead, mercury, and silver. Nitrates are another source of inorganic contamination. Finally, leaching radioactive elements into the water supply can contaminate it.

Human conflicts over water

Some large or small conflicts of the future may be fought over access to water. A worldwide battle for water may well ensue in regard to this limited resource, which is being strained by human population. Water shortages may well result in water conflicts over this precious resource.

In West Africa today and in many other places, Nepal, Bangladesh, India (such as the Ganges-Brahmaputra), and Peru, major changes in the rivers, generate a significant risk of violent conflict in coming years. Water management and control could well play a part in future resource wars between contending parties desiring scarce resources.

Issues defy easy solutions :

No matter how freshwater is used, whether for agriculture, industry, or municipalities, there is great potential for better conservation and management. Water is wasted nearly everywhere. Until actual scarcity hits, many take access to freshwater for granted. Water resources can be properly managed and water can be conserved. And, sometimes “backstop” water sources are viable.

Water conservation

Further information: water conservation

Water conservation refers to reducing the use of water. There are several things that can be done to conserve water. Most irrigation systems waste water. Typically, only between 35% and 50% of water withdrawn for irrigated agriculture ever reaches the crops. Most soaks into unlined canals, leaks out of pipes, or evaporates before reaching the fields. Swales and cisterns can be used to catch excess rainwater and store it for the dry season. Water should be used more efficiently in industry. Industry should use a closed water cycle if possible. Also, industry should prevent polluting water so that it can be returned into the water cycle. Whenever possible gray waste water should be used to irrigate trees or lawns. Water drawn from aquifers should be recharged by treating the wastewater and replacing it back into the aquifer. Finally, water can be conserved by not allowing fresh water to be used to irrigate luxuries such as golf courses. Luxury goods should not be produced in hot stains, areas where fresh water has been depleted. For example, 1500 liters of water is used on average for the manufacturing of a single computer and monitor.

Water management

Further information: Water management

Water management involves the scientific planning, developing, distribution and optimum utilizing of water resources under defined water polices and regulations. Examples of policies that control the water demand are water permits, water restrictions and water prices.

In 2008, Clark County, Nevada, raised its water rates to encourage conservation. In a commentary in Forbes magazine, David Zetland said that the reason people waste so much water is because the price is too low. For example, he said that in Los Angeles, households paid only $2.80 for the first 885 gallons of water they used each day. He proposed to encourage conservation by adopting a system of progressive pricing whereby the price per unit of water used would start out very small, and then rise substantially for each additional unit of water used. A Freakonomics column in The New York Times suggested that people would respond to higher water prices by using less of it, just as they respond to higher gasoline prices by using less of it. The Christian Science Monitorreported that economists claim that higher water prices curb waste and consumption.

Water subsidies often involve contentious policy issues that are political in nature. In 2004, the Environmental Working Group criticized the U.S. federal government for selling subsidized water to corporate farms for an average price of only $17 per acre foot (326,000 gallons).

In chapter 10 of his book The Ultimate Resource 2, Julian Simon claimed that there is a strong correlation between government corruption and lack of sufficient supplies of safe, clean water. Simon wrote, "... there is complete agreement among water economists that all it takes to ensure an adequate supply for agriculture as well as for households in rich countries is that there be a rational structure of water law and market pricing. The problem is not too many people but rather defective laws and bureaucratic interventions; freeing up markets in water would eliminate just about all water problems forever... In poor water-short countries the problem with water supply - as with so many other matters - is lack of wealth to create systems to supply water efficiently enough. As these countries become richer, their water problems will become less difficult..."

Climate change

The term hot stain can refer to an area where fresh water has been depleted. These areas have experienced peak water aspects. A climate study from the IPCC Working Group II, has said evidence has shown climate change was having a direct effect on animals, plants and water. Some findings of a 2007 report (Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability) include : 75-250 million people across Africa could face water shortages by 2020. Crop yields could increase by 20% in East and Southeast Asia, but decrease by up to 30% in Central and South Asia. Agriculture fed by rainfall could drop by 50% in some African countries by 2020.

Loss of biodiversity can be attributed largely to the appropriation of land for agroforestry and the effects of climate change. The 2008 IUCN Red List warns that long-term droughts and extreme weather puts additional stress on key habitats and, for example, lists 1,226 bird species as threatened with extinction, which is one-in-eight of all bird species.

Backstop water sources

If the rate of water production is not sufficient in one area, pipelines can be used to carry freshwater from where it is abundant, to an area where water is needed. Water can be imported into an area using water trucks. The most expensive and last resort measures of getting water to a community such as desalination, water transfers are called “backstop” water sources. Fog catchers are the most extreme of backstop methods.

To produce that fresh water, it can be obtained from ocean water through desalination. A January 17, 2008 article in the Wall Street Journal stated, "World-wide, 13,080 desalination plants produce more than 12 billion gallons of water a day, according to the International Desalination Association."^[55] Israel is now desalinizing water at a cost of US$0.53 per cubic meter. Singapore is desalinizing water for US$0.49 per cubic meter. After being desalinized at Jubail, Saudi Arabia, water is pumped 200 miles (320 km) inland though a pipeline to the capital city of Riyadh.

However, there are several factors that currently keep desalination from being the cure-all for water shortages: the high capital costs to build the desalination plant, the high cost of the water produced, the energy required to desalinate the water, the environmental issues with the disposal of the resulting brine and the high cost of transporting water. Nevertheless, some countries such as Spain are relying on desalination for agricultural purposes because of the continuing decreasing costs of the technology.